Hydrological Modeling and Global Change - Hydrological Modeling

The module is organized into three sections:                                            

(1) Climate variability and climate change: definitions, principles, the greenhouse effect, climate simulations, disaggregation, scenarios, and impacts;                                                                                            

(2) Hydrological modeling: numerical structures and representations, input and control data, state variables, parameter tuning, objective functions and optimization methods, parameter analysis and equifinality, robustness and transferability, sensitivity to climate forcings;                                                

(3) Hydrological modeling tutorials: prepare data, calibrate models, simulate flow rates, generate graphical outputs to analyze the simulations, and simulate the impact of climate change on runoff.

The module aims to provide students with the theoretical and practical foundations for applying numerical methods to model the impact of global changes on water resources, using hydrological models as examples: parameter calibration methods, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods, and data assimilation methods. The targeted competencies are as follows:

• Methodological knowledge: Gain a comprehensive understanding of the various stages involved in modeling the hydrological impact of climate change: data organization, numerical representations, methods for parameter calibration and simulation evaluation, uncertainty analysis methods, and data assimilation methods for constraining predictive models.
• Expertise: the ability to perform automatic calibration, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis of a numerical hydrological model.
• Interpersonal skills: considering “uncertainties” and analyzing their implications in modeling, and maintaining an objective perspective on a hydrological simulation exercise.

Basics of numerical programming in R or MATLAB.            

General knowledge of hydrology (hydrologic cycle, watersheds, precipitation, evapotranspiration, infiltration and runoff, hydrologic response).

Final assessment based on the submission of a micro-project report (10 pages) to be completed individually at home (100%).

The module aims to provide students with the theoretical and practical foundations for applying numerical methods to model the impact of global changes on water resources, using hydrological models as examples. The course will alternate between lectures and tutorials (using MATLAB or R) applied to conceptual hydrological models. Lectures will include examples to illustrate the value of these approaches in research and engineering. The tutorials will be conducted on students’ personal computers. The software and data will be provided to them in advance. The first tutorial will focus on simulating the impact of Med-CORDEX climate change scenarios on streamflow in a Mediterranean watershed. The second tutorial will focus on simulating streamflow and snow cover in a mountain watershed. Simulations for this watershed will continue as part of a micro-project to be carried out by the students and submitted in the form of a report. In particular, the project will involve conducting a sensitivity analysis of gradual temperature increases to assess the potential impact of global warming on snow and runoff dynamics.