Hydrological Modelling and Global Change - Modélisation hydr

The module is divided into 3 sequences:                                            

(1) Climate variability and change: definitions, principles, greenhouse effect, climate simulations, disaggregation, scenarios and impacts;                                                                                            

(2) Hydrological modeling: structures and numerical representations, input and control data, state variables, parameter calibration, objective functions and optimization methods, parameter analysis and equifinality, robustness and transferability, sensitivity to climatic forcing;                                                

(3) Hydrological modeling tutorials: prepare data, calibrate models, simulate flows, produce graphical output to analyze simulations, simulate the impact of climate change on runoff.

The module aims to provide students with a theoretical and practical grounding in the implementation of numerical methods for modeling the impact of global change on water resources, with hydrological models as illustrations: parameter calibration methods, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods, data assimilation methods. The skills targeted are as follows:

• Methodological knowledge: acquire an overview of the various stages involved in modeling the hydrological impact of climate change: data organization, numerical representations, methods for parameter calibration and simulation evaluation, uncertainty analysis methods, data assimilation methods for constraining predictive models.
• Know-how: be able to implement automatic calibration, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a numerical hydrological model.
• Skills: thinking in terms of "uncertainties" and reasoning about their consequences in modeling, taking a step back from a hydrological simulation exercise.

Basic numerical programming in R or Matlab.            

General knowledge of hydrology (hydrological cycle, watersheds, precipitation, evapotranspiration, infiltration and runoff, hydrological response).

Final test with a micro-project report (10 pages) to be completed individually at home (100%).

The module aims to provide students with the theoretical and practical foundations for implementing numerical methods for modeling the impact of global change on water resources, using hydrological models as illustrations. The course will alternate between lectures and tutorials (on Matlab or R) applied to conceptual hydrological models. The lectures will include examples to illustrate the value of these approaches in research and engineering. TDs will be carried out on students' personal computers. Software and data will be provided in advance. The first tutorial will be devoted to simulating the impact of Med-CORDEX climate change scenarios on flows in a Mediterranean basin. A second TD will be devoted to simulating flows and snow cover in a mountain basin. Simulations on this basin will be continued in a micro-project to be carried out by the students and submitted in the form of a report. This will include a sensitivity analysis to gradual temperature increases, to assess the potential impact of global warming on snow and flow dynamics.